Canada's population growth is projected to flatline in 2026, according to a recent report by the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO). This halt in growth is largely due to the federal government's intentions to decrease the number of non-permanent residents as outlined in the latest Immigration Levels Plan.
The PBO's analysis indicates that the government is on track to meet its objective of reducing non-permanent residents from 7.6 percent of the total population in 2024 to five percent by the end of 2027, a year later than initially planned. The plan includes a target of 380,000 permanent resident admissions annually between 2026 and 2028, alongside two one-time programs designed to expedite permanent residency for 148,000 non-permanent residents over the next two years. These programs are expected to significantly contribute to the reduction of non-permanent residents in Canada.
While a decline in non-permanent residents is anticipated, Statistics Canada projects that Canada's population will continue to grow in the long term. Under a medium-growth scenario, the total population could reach 57.4 million by 2075. Immigration is expected to be the primary driver of this future growth, as natural population increase slows due to an aging population and modest birth rates.
The PBO report projects a slight population growth of 0.3 percent in 2027, with stabilization around 0.8 percent annually in the medium term. Despite the projected stall in 2026, Canada's population is expected to continue its upward trajectory in the years to come.
